WHERE ARE THE LIMITS OF EUROPE?

Should the European Union include Russia in a long future?


27/08/2008
Francesc Raventós Economista

Recent events like the case of Georgia have shown what kind of tensions may suffer Europe in the near future. In the past, tensions and wars among the European great powers have definitely been solved building up the European Union. Russia is an autocracy in an early stage of democracy. Thanks to its natural resources is already a growing economic great power, which wishes to expand its influence and role in Europe and in the world. Should European Union in a long long term consider admitting Russia as a new member?


THE EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGMENT


The EU is today composed by 27 countries, with a global population of 500.000.000 persons, and a GDP according to IFM of 16.800 billion $, slightly above the USA GDP, and far above the third economic world power: Japan.

The construction of the EU has been an on-going process. Where and when will this process have an end?

Before answering this question, we should consider which are the basic qualifications required for full membership in the European Union.

Basic qualifications for full membership in the EU.

They areas as follows:

Applicant must be a European state
It’s a democratic country in which human rights are respected and guaranteed
It has respect for and protection of minorities
It is a functioning market economy
It shares the common European values and its internal and external objectives.
It incorporates the “Acquis Communitaire” into the national law.

Different models of Association

Essentially, there are two different association models:

Europe Agreement,

Known as “Pre-accession Partnership” which makes specific provisions for eventual full membership, but don’t guarantee it.

Association Agreement

The EU may conclude with one or more states agreements establishing reciprocal rights and obligations. This framework is very loose, and may be agreed in defining strong and long-term relations.

Problems to solve before new enlargements

Currently, the EU faces difficult problems that must be solved before considering any further enlargement: Irish negative vote on the Lisbon Treaty; problems with some of the late incorporated members; the economic situation, etc. The EU future criteria to approve the main decisions in a larger Union are not a minor subject and therefore should be revised.

A strategic vision of the future

The Origins of the EU are rooted in considering the awful disaster that the Second World War meant for Europe. Jean Monnet and Robert Schumann, considered the ideological founders of the EU, had a dream: to have a peaceful union of European countries, sharing the same values, promoting social and economic progress and achieving a better quality of life for its people. They had a strategic view of what was needed for the future. The founding of the ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) in April 1951 was the first step of this dream.

What to do now in a world that is changing in its deepest roots?
Europe needs again to have a new dream, a new utopia; this dream, this utopia, requires defining a new strategy for the future.

The current demographic and economic trends show that, let’s say, in twenty or thirty years, some new big powers will be present in the world: China, India, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, etc. Some countries will set up regional organisations to have bigger markets and much more power that being alone.

A proposal for the future:

Around 1950, the EU has been founded on the principles of liberty, democracy, and respect for human rights. The main idea was to develop a united Europe aimed to economic and social progress and peace.

This initial dream is now a reality. The EU, in spite of its current problems, is a success without precedent. The EU founders had seen ahead, and now as the founders had done, we need to see ahead again; we need to imagine how we would like Europe to be around 2.050, and what we should do to achieve it.

Of course the context from 1950’s up to now has change dramatically, and it will continue to change in the future.

With this long-term strategic vision in mind I propose:

Once the EU has reasonably dealt with the current problems, to initiate a new enlargement process of the EU towards the East, aimed to, in a long-term, incorporate these countries as full EU members, and an enlargement to the southern Mediterranean countries with a status of a “Close Association Agreement”

This process will require recognizing the reciprocal interest of each country, flexibility, and a long period of time for adaptation involving multiple steps.

Therefore, different situations appear:

Situation 1: New members in a period of about 10 years.

Eligible members in this status would be mainly Turkey and the Balkan countries: Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, etc.

The negotiations would take place country by country; when the country fulfils the basic conditions. A transition period starts before full admission.

Of the current applicants Turkey have already a long-standing Association Agreement, and some of the remainders have Europe Agreements.

Some comments with regard to Turkey.

The admission of Turkey into the EU has generated a lively debate. Effectively there are pros and cons, but long-term the strategic advantages for Turkey and for the EU are large.

Of course, there are important issues involved: Turkey would be the biggest country in term of population and cultures are quite different. Turkey will need a huge amount of financial resources to improve its infrastructures, etc. but there is no shortage of strategic arguments in favour of its accession. Turkey is a large secular Muslim democracy. Europe wants Turkey to become more modern, democratic and stable because Turkey has strategic importance as "an anchor of stability and a benchmark of democracy” for the wider Muslim world. The best way of achieving those changes is the process of becoming an EU member. We need Turkey in the EU as much as Turkey needs the EU.

Situation 2: Future members to be considered after a long period of time
(From 15 to 25 years):

These countries are the European countries that belonged once to the old Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldavia, Georgia, Armenia, etc. Some of them have already applied for membership to the EU.

In all cases collaboration should start with an Association Agreement. After a long period of time both parts would consider the interest of a Europe Agreement, or
“Pre-accession Partnership”, that makes specific provisions for eventual full membership, but do not guarantee it.

Why Russia matters?

Russia is recovering the role of a great power that not long ago they had. If you combine its current economic, military and diplomatic strengths Russia ranks among the important countries of the world. Much of its power has been due to record high prices for oil and gas.

Europe depends more on Russia for oil and gas than for the Middle East. Russia with its important natural resources, its 16.000 nuclear warheads, its veto at the United Nations Security Council and its influence in the world is an important world player.

Russia is trying to restore its great power status in its traditional spheres of influence in central Europe especially in Ukraine, Belarusian, Georgia, Moldavia, etc. and in Asia and other parts of the world. We have seen recently what had happened in Georgia.

If we refer to Europe, one clear example is its support of Serbia with regard to the independence of Kosovo. Most of these European countries are looking to join the EU, but the EU has fond an unexpected and unwanted competitor: Russia, that doesn’t want to lose this geopolitical area of influence. What to do?

Is it true that the EU and Russia geopolitically live in different eras, but a large cooperation in a large number of fields between both sides will have huge benefices for both parts.


Situation 3: Associated Mediterranean members with strong long-term agreements.

Members qualified would be all ten southern Mediterranean countries from Morocco, through Lebanon and Syria. These countries never will become EU full members because they don’t belong to Europe.

The cooperation that I propose is an Association Agreement for each separate country or group of countries. The EU may conclude agreements establishing reciprocal rights and obligations. This framework is very loose, and may be agreed in defining progressively stronger relations. The reach of the agreements should be very flexible and in a multi-step process.

The cooperation can be very beneficial for all the countries. Areas to be developed are: trade, investments, financial, assistance in scientific, technical, and industrial fields.

More intensive cultural and political contacts would help progress in human rights and democracy, and will stabilise the region and relieve migration pressure on the Union’s southern frontiers.

In 1995 the EU and these southern Mediterranean countries signed the “Barcelona Declaration” partly in that sense. Currently, the French President Sarkozy, as current president of the EU, has retaken the subject very seriously and wants to enhance the process.


Benefits of the proposal

In the long term the aim is to establish the largest political, economic, and free trade area of the world: an enlarged EU from the Atlantic until the Pacific and with a Cooperation Agreement with all the southern Mediterranean countries.

This association process once fully developed will guarantee peace and collaboration among countries that will have a population of one billion people, and that will have complementary economies of developed and underdeveloped countries. All these countries together will be able to develop a huge market for agriculture, industry, services, and energy, which will help in competing with the newly emerging countries. Eventually, “the North” will help to develop “the South”, which at the same time will help to prevent illegal migrations.

Another important asset should be, that this close cooperation should not be restricted to the economic arena, but to political, social and multicultural areas.

An EU with its diverse associated members transcending power politics will design a social and multicultural model that could lead the world into a new international order based on democracy, international law and global institutions. This would be the best contribution to a world in fostering economic growth and social progress, stability, cooperation and peace.