En un anterior article comentava que OBAMA o MC CAIN es trobaran l’ economia americana en una situació caòtica, que a més a més està arrossegant tota l’economia mundial a un desgavell. Avui es tracta de comentar el perquè s’ha arribat a aquesta situació.
Per començar cal tenir present quina es la situació actual. El mes greu es que ningú te idea de la magnitud de la “toxicitat” en que es troben els actius, ni del nivell de solvència de les entitats financeres o de les empreses. Amb el Pla de Rescat de 700.000 dòlars proposat per el President BUSH i aprobat pel Congrés s’ha solucionat el problema? L ‘impressió general es que no, que l’únic que s’ha aconseguit de moment es parar parcialment l’hemorràgia. S ‘està realment en una situació de pre-colapse del sistema financer? Tampoc ningú ho sap.Segurament les radicals mesures d’urgencia preses conjuntament per autoritats americanes i europees, al menys de moment, calmaran la situació. Però la manca de control públic i la poca transparència amb la que s’ha actuat fa que ni les màximes autoritats estatals americanes, europees, o d’altres parts del món, coneguin quina es la situació real.
Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
Es mostren els missatges amb l'etiqueta de comentaris Europa. Mostrar tots els missatges
Es mostren els missatges amb l'etiqueta de comentaris Europa. Mostrar tots els missatges
dimecres, 15 d’octubre del 2008
dimarts, 23 de setembre del 2008
HOW TO COPE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN EUROPE.
16/05/2008
Francesc Raventós Economist
Most politicians, economist and demographers are extremely concerned about the ageing population in Europe. They are afraid that by the year, let's say, 2.050, the overall size of the European population will have undergone a significant decrease
and that its economy and the welfare system will not able to offer a high standard of living to its citizens.
If we compare with the rest of the world, Europe has already declined in terms of share in the world's demography, which has fallen from 12, 5 % in 1960 to 7, 2 % now.
On current projections it will fall to just 5% by 2.050.
One of the facts that sustain this pessimistic approach is based on the fall in the fertility rate average below the replacement rate of 2,1 birth per woman, defined as necessary to maintain a stable population. The average fertility rate in the European Union of 27 countries, stood at 1,5 children per woman in 2.005, compared with 2,7 in 1965. In Spain is only 1,3 one of the lowest rates in Europe. Demographers are divided as to whether this current low fertility rate is only temporary or more enduring.
The evolution of the dependency ratio shows clearly that when a population becomes older, a decreasing working population - aged from 16 to 65 years - will need to support the cost of a higher non-working population. It's very clear that in the long term this situation is unsustainable.
The opinion of the more optimistic is that total dependency ratios in 2.050 will look more like those in the 1.960s, before the "baby boom" generation, but they don't give any compelling evidence of this statement. It seems it is only wishful thinking.
Another fact related to the declining population is the rise in the number of families without children, or families with only one child.
What are governments doing to deal with the threatening problem of an aging population? One common action of many of them is to promote "pro-natality" policies, that's to say, to offer services and incentives to families and especially to women to encourage them to have more children. The problem is that according to experiences in different countries the improvement of fertility rate appears only in the first years and its increase is anyway very limited, in spite of the heavy resources invested in these programmes.
Another common measure that governments usually take is to turn to immigration. Immigration generally means young people and families with a high fertility rate, but this is also a solution that has its limitations. The level of immigration to compensate for the low domestic fertility rate should be so high, that society would not be disposed to accept such an immigration increase. Anyway over time, immigration tends to adapt its fertility rate to the levels of the indigenous population.
Therefore, what should do governments to cope with this tough situation?
Population growth is normally regarded as essential for economic growth. Contemporary economists stress the importance of the age structure evolution to assess the developing potential of a country. Europe's ageing population structure will have an adverse impact on the European economy, in spite of the measures that governments could adopt to increase the birth rate and immigration to offset the ageing population. One most probable conclusion, although a very pessimistic one, is that the European standard of living will not be affordable in the future, unless huge changes are introduced.
If the above mentioned measures are not enough to avoid the current trend toward an ageing population, and the declining of our standard of living, what kind of measures should be considered?
Diverse are the steps that should be taken. To start with, it is necessary to define a new economic model more oriented to a global market economy, a model that should offer high quality competitive products and services; we should reconsider also, how the labour market or productivity are performing; the Welfare System should be overhauled, etc. etc. Of course, to transform the present economic model to a more global and competitive one, requires, among other things, a serious effort to ensure the overall qualification of the population trough education, promote creativity and R&D and a general consensus from society about the measures that should be taken too. Today I will only refer to the labour market and productivity.
Governments should give more importance to the full potential of the labour market, since it is inefficient in most European countries. For instance, simply meeting the EU's "Lisbon target" of a 70 % employment rate of the potential working population would substantially reduce the dependency rate. In Spain the employment rate is currently at
only 62 %. If all EU countries could reach the proposed goal, the economic problem due to an aging population will be offset.
An unpopular but necessary step is to raise gradually the legal retirement age, in order to increase the number of people in work aged over 65. This proposal is logical if we bear in mind that life expectancy is greater and the population is healthier.
Furthermore, we should make efforts to increase productivity, because the workforce European countries starts to shrink, their economies will become increasingly reliant on advances in productivity.
Therefore Europe faces more a labour market challenge than a demographic crisis. Proposals to evolve to a new economic model will not be easily applied. Real difficulties and resistance to change must be taken into consideration and incentives that favour change and compensations for losers should be approved. In Europe most people that have experienced the huge economic and social improvements after World War II, now take for granted all the benefits attained.
To sum up, the challenge for those countries with an ageing population is to evolve into a competitive economic model adapted to a global world economy, improving at the same time the labour market and productivity. It is an absolute must if we want to maintain or improve our standard of living. We should commit all society: governments, employers, trade unions, etc. in all European countries to a common Project for the Future of Europe and each of their countries.
NOTE: (1) See working paper: Growing old gracefully: How to ease population ageing in Europe. Alasdair Murray. Centre for European Reform. Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
Francesc Raventós Economist
Most politicians, economist and demographers are extremely concerned about the ageing population in Europe. They are afraid that by the year, let's say, 2.050, the overall size of the European population will have undergone a significant decrease
and that its economy and the welfare system will not able to offer a high standard of living to its citizens.
If we compare with the rest of the world, Europe has already declined in terms of share in the world's demography, which has fallen from 12, 5 % in 1960 to 7, 2 % now.
On current projections it will fall to just 5% by 2.050.
One of the facts that sustain this pessimistic approach is based on the fall in the fertility rate average below the replacement rate of 2,1 birth per woman, defined as necessary to maintain a stable population. The average fertility rate in the European Union of 27 countries, stood at 1,5 children per woman in 2.005, compared with 2,7 in 1965. In Spain is only 1,3 one of the lowest rates in Europe. Demographers are divided as to whether this current low fertility rate is only temporary or more enduring.
The evolution of the dependency ratio shows clearly that when a population becomes older, a decreasing working population - aged from 16 to 65 years - will need to support the cost of a higher non-working population. It's very clear that in the long term this situation is unsustainable.
The opinion of the more optimistic is that total dependency ratios in 2.050 will look more like those in the 1.960s, before the "baby boom" generation, but they don't give any compelling evidence of this statement. It seems it is only wishful thinking.
Another fact related to the declining population is the rise in the number of families without children, or families with only one child.
What are governments doing to deal with the threatening problem of an aging population? One common action of many of them is to promote "pro-natality" policies, that's to say, to offer services and incentives to families and especially to women to encourage them to have more children. The problem is that according to experiences in different countries the improvement of fertility rate appears only in the first years and its increase is anyway very limited, in spite of the heavy resources invested in these programmes.
Another common measure that governments usually take is to turn to immigration. Immigration generally means young people and families with a high fertility rate, but this is also a solution that has its limitations. The level of immigration to compensate for the low domestic fertility rate should be so high, that society would not be disposed to accept such an immigration increase. Anyway over time, immigration tends to adapt its fertility rate to the levels of the indigenous population.
Therefore, what should do governments to cope with this tough situation?
Population growth is normally regarded as essential for economic growth. Contemporary economists stress the importance of the age structure evolution to assess the developing potential of a country. Europe's ageing population structure will have an adverse impact on the European economy, in spite of the measures that governments could adopt to increase the birth rate and immigration to offset the ageing population. One most probable conclusion, although a very pessimistic one, is that the European standard of living will not be affordable in the future, unless huge changes are introduced.
If the above mentioned measures are not enough to avoid the current trend toward an ageing population, and the declining of our standard of living, what kind of measures should be considered?
Diverse are the steps that should be taken. To start with, it is necessary to define a new economic model more oriented to a global market economy, a model that should offer high quality competitive products and services; we should reconsider also, how the labour market or productivity are performing; the Welfare System should be overhauled, etc. etc. Of course, to transform the present economic model to a more global and competitive one, requires, among other things, a serious effort to ensure the overall qualification of the population trough education, promote creativity and R&D and a general consensus from society about the measures that should be taken too. Today I will only refer to the labour market and productivity.
Governments should give more importance to the full potential of the labour market, since it is inefficient in most European countries. For instance, simply meeting the EU's "Lisbon target" of a 70 % employment rate of the potential working population would substantially reduce the dependency rate. In Spain the employment rate is currently at
only 62 %. If all EU countries could reach the proposed goal, the economic problem due to an aging population will be offset.
An unpopular but necessary step is to raise gradually the legal retirement age, in order to increase the number of people in work aged over 65. This proposal is logical if we bear in mind that life expectancy is greater and the population is healthier.
Furthermore, we should make efforts to increase productivity, because the workforce European countries starts to shrink, their economies will become increasingly reliant on advances in productivity.
Therefore Europe faces more a labour market challenge than a demographic crisis. Proposals to evolve to a new economic model will not be easily applied. Real difficulties and resistance to change must be taken into consideration and incentives that favour change and compensations for losers should be approved. In Europe most people that have experienced the huge economic and social improvements after World War II, now take for granted all the benefits attained.
To sum up, the challenge for those countries with an ageing population is to evolve into a competitive economic model adapted to a global world economy, improving at the same time the labour market and productivity. It is an absolute must if we want to maintain or improve our standard of living. We should commit all society: governments, employers, trade unions, etc. in all European countries to a common Project for the Future of Europe and each of their countries.
NOTE: (1) See working paper: Growing old gracefully: How to ease population ageing in Europe. Alasdair Murray. Centre for European Reform. Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
ES PODRÀ FINANÇAR L'ENVELLIMENT DE LA POBLACIÓ EUROPEA ?
23/05/2008
Francesc Raventós Economista
Quins efectes econòmics i financers tindrà l'envelliment de la població a Europa? Serà suportable un augment de despesa en un entorn de forta competència internacional? Es podrà millorar o mantenir el nivell actual de l'Estat de Benestar?
No cal dir que son preguntes que generen un ampli motiu de preocupació. L' Unió Europea ha fet un estudi amb perspectiva fins a l'any 2.050, en el que analitza l' evolució del cost de les pensions, de la sanitat, i l'atenció a la gent més gran. La conclusió final es que l'incidència de l'envelliment de la població a l' Unió Europea dels 25 països, suposarà un augment mig de 3,4 punt de PIB a l'any 2.050. Aquesta xifra es molt desigual entre els diferents països, per exemple, per Espanya es calcula que el cost addicional suposarà 8,5 punts de PIB.
Detallant aquestes xifres, l'augment de despesa es calcula en dos trams
1,6 punts del PIB fins a l'any 2.030 i 3,4 punts a l'any 2,050. Si desglossem aquest cost es preveu un augment de 2,2 punts per les pensions; 1,5 punts per la sanitat; 0,6 per una major atenció a la gent més gran; en canvi el cost de l'educació disminuirà en -0,6 punts, i el de l'atur en -0,3.
En quant a Espanya es calcula que fins l'any 2.030 l'augment serà de 3,3 punts del PIB, mentre que a l'any 2.050 s'arribarà a 8,5 punts.
Aquestes estimacions porten ja incorporades algunes de les mesures que s'estima prendran els diferents països per contenir el cost, i en canvi no es tenen en compte alguns factors claus que poden fer augmentar encara més la despesa, com pot ser, per exemple, la major exigència dels ciutadans d'una sanitat de qualitat sense llista d'espera; la pressió de l' indústria per incorporar les caríssimes noves tecnologies de la salut o nous fàrmacs; la necessitat de l'educació permanent cada cop més necessària. En el cas d' Espanya, s'ha d'incloure també el cost de la nova Llei de Dependència, que si be es un gran avanç social suposarà un cost addicional.
Un escenari molt probable es que per intentar controlar els costos, hi hagi una forta tensió entre els ciutadans que demanen més i millors prestacions, i els governs que es veuran obligats a retallar la despesa pública. En aquesta tensió hi jugarà un paper destacat la política, dons vindrà influïda per un creixent pes electoral de la gent gran i la seva exigència de millores en les pensions i altres prestacions, per poder viure en millors condicions els anys de la vellesa.
En el cas d' Espanya la situació es més complexa, dons encara no s'ha acabat de situar l' Estat de Benestar al nivell de l' Europa dels 15, i l'augment de despesa que es preveu es de les més altes de la unió Europea.
Com queda clar serà precís gestionar molt millor els recursos, i introduir reformes de diversa índole al sistema actual. Caldran bastants "Pactes de Toledo" per trobar un punt d'equilibri entre les possibilitats econòmiques del país i les demandes socials.
En l'estudi hi ha dades interessants com, per exemple que la població d' Europa de 25 membres, que actualment es de 456 milions, fins a l'any 2.050 disminuirà en un 1%, però al mateix temps la població en edat laboral de 15 a 64 anys cau fortament, passant de 307 milions a 259 milions, el que suposa un canvi espectacular en el índex de dependència. L' immigració neta s'estima passarà del nivell actual d' un milió tres-cents mils immigrants anuals a uns nou-cents mil. En quant al PIB es preveu un augment del 2,2 % fins l'any 2.024 i que posteriorment fins a l'any 2.050 es reduirà al 1,3 %. L' augment que es preveu per la productivitat es del 1,8 % anual. La previsió per Espanya es passar d'un creixement del PIB del 2% pel període 2004 – 2030, al 0,9 % pels anys posteriors.
Quin nivell de fiabilitat tenen aquestes estimacions? Les mateixes que tota estimació solvent a llarg termini, com es en aquest cas. Un estudi d'aquesta naturalesa es complex i obliga a fer moltes assumpcions; tot i defensant la gran utilitat d'aquests estudis, només se li ha de donar un valor d' orientació sobre les tendències futures, i tenir clara la necessitat de revisar les assumpcions periòdicament. Veiem, per exemple, algunes de les estimacions en las que es basa l'estudi, que a més s'han hagut de fer a nivell de cada país: projeccions demogràfiques per edats, que inclou conceptes com la tassa de fertilitat, l'expectativa de vida, immigració; augment del PIB; la productivitat; el tipus d'interès; la població activa i el nivell d'atur, els ratios de dependència, etc.
Com a conclusió, el més probable es que si el creixement econòmic futur es només moderat com es preveu, per poder finançar el model de benestar, s'assisteixi a la necessitat de majors aportacions contributives, o d' impostos, i com que aixó es preveu difícil, s'opti per anar limitant el nivell de prestacions públiques. El resultat, contra el qual s'hauria de lluitar, seria el d' una introducció progressiva d'un sistema de protecció lliberal per els que el puguin pagar, la qual cosa portaria a una societat més individualista, menys solidaria i amb una major desigualtat social. Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
Francesc Raventós Economista
Quins efectes econòmics i financers tindrà l'envelliment de la població a Europa? Serà suportable un augment de despesa en un entorn de forta competència internacional? Es podrà millorar o mantenir el nivell actual de l'Estat de Benestar?
No cal dir que son preguntes que generen un ampli motiu de preocupació. L' Unió Europea ha fet un estudi amb perspectiva fins a l'any 2.050, en el que analitza l' evolució del cost de les pensions, de la sanitat, i l'atenció a la gent més gran. La conclusió final es que l'incidència de l'envelliment de la població a l' Unió Europea dels 25 països, suposarà un augment mig de 3,4 punt de PIB a l'any 2.050. Aquesta xifra es molt desigual entre els diferents països, per exemple, per Espanya es calcula que el cost addicional suposarà 8,5 punts de PIB.
Detallant aquestes xifres, l'augment de despesa es calcula en dos trams
1,6 punts del PIB fins a l'any 2.030 i 3,4 punts a l'any 2,050. Si desglossem aquest cost es preveu un augment de 2,2 punts per les pensions; 1,5 punts per la sanitat; 0,6 per una major atenció a la gent més gran; en canvi el cost de l'educació disminuirà en -0,6 punts, i el de l'atur en -0,3.
En quant a Espanya es calcula que fins l'any 2.030 l'augment serà de 3,3 punts del PIB, mentre que a l'any 2.050 s'arribarà a 8,5 punts.
Aquestes estimacions porten ja incorporades algunes de les mesures que s'estima prendran els diferents països per contenir el cost, i en canvi no es tenen en compte alguns factors claus que poden fer augmentar encara més la despesa, com pot ser, per exemple, la major exigència dels ciutadans d'una sanitat de qualitat sense llista d'espera; la pressió de l' indústria per incorporar les caríssimes noves tecnologies de la salut o nous fàrmacs; la necessitat de l'educació permanent cada cop més necessària. En el cas d' Espanya, s'ha d'incloure també el cost de la nova Llei de Dependència, que si be es un gran avanç social suposarà un cost addicional.
Un escenari molt probable es que per intentar controlar els costos, hi hagi una forta tensió entre els ciutadans que demanen més i millors prestacions, i els governs que es veuran obligats a retallar la despesa pública. En aquesta tensió hi jugarà un paper destacat la política, dons vindrà influïda per un creixent pes electoral de la gent gran i la seva exigència de millores en les pensions i altres prestacions, per poder viure en millors condicions els anys de la vellesa.
En el cas d' Espanya la situació es més complexa, dons encara no s'ha acabat de situar l' Estat de Benestar al nivell de l' Europa dels 15, i l'augment de despesa que es preveu es de les més altes de la unió Europea.
Com queda clar serà precís gestionar molt millor els recursos, i introduir reformes de diversa índole al sistema actual. Caldran bastants "Pactes de Toledo" per trobar un punt d'equilibri entre les possibilitats econòmiques del país i les demandes socials.
En l'estudi hi ha dades interessants com, per exemple que la població d' Europa de 25 membres, que actualment es de 456 milions, fins a l'any 2.050 disminuirà en un 1%, però al mateix temps la població en edat laboral de 15 a 64 anys cau fortament, passant de 307 milions a 259 milions, el que suposa un canvi espectacular en el índex de dependència. L' immigració neta s'estima passarà del nivell actual d' un milió tres-cents mils immigrants anuals a uns nou-cents mil. En quant al PIB es preveu un augment del 2,2 % fins l'any 2.024 i que posteriorment fins a l'any 2.050 es reduirà al 1,3 %. L' augment que es preveu per la productivitat es del 1,8 % anual. La previsió per Espanya es passar d'un creixement del PIB del 2% pel període 2004 – 2030, al 0,9 % pels anys posteriors.
Quin nivell de fiabilitat tenen aquestes estimacions? Les mateixes que tota estimació solvent a llarg termini, com es en aquest cas. Un estudi d'aquesta naturalesa es complex i obliga a fer moltes assumpcions; tot i defensant la gran utilitat d'aquests estudis, només se li ha de donar un valor d' orientació sobre les tendències futures, i tenir clara la necessitat de revisar les assumpcions periòdicament. Veiem, per exemple, algunes de les estimacions en las que es basa l'estudi, que a més s'han hagut de fer a nivell de cada país: projeccions demogràfiques per edats, que inclou conceptes com la tassa de fertilitat, l'expectativa de vida, immigració; augment del PIB; la productivitat; el tipus d'interès; la població activa i el nivell d'atur, els ratios de dependència, etc.
Com a conclusió, el més probable es que si el creixement econòmic futur es només moderat com es preveu, per poder finançar el model de benestar, s'assisteixi a la necessitat de majors aportacions contributives, o d' impostos, i com que aixó es preveu difícil, s'opti per anar limitant el nivell de prestacions públiques. El resultat, contra el qual s'hauria de lluitar, seria el d' una introducció progressiva d'un sistema de protecció lliberal per els que el puguin pagar, la qual cosa portaria a una societat més individualista, menys solidaria i amb una major desigualtat social. Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
dimecres, 17 de setembre del 2008
WHERE ARE THE LIMITS OF EUROPE?
Should the European Union include Russia in a long future?
27/08/2008
Francesc Raventós Economista
Recent events like the case of Georgia have shown what kind of tensions may suffer Europe in the near future. In the past, tensions and wars among the European great powers have definitely been solved building up the European Union. Russia is an autocracy in an early stage of democracy. Thanks to its natural resources is already a growing economic great power, which wishes to expand its influence and role in Europe and in the world. Should European Union in a long long term consider admitting Russia as a new member?
THE EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGMENT
The EU is today composed by 27 countries, with a global population of 500.000.000 persons, and a GDP according to IFM of 16.800 billion $, slightly above the USA GDP, and far above the third economic world power: Japan.
The construction of the EU has been an on-going process. Where and when will this process have an end?
Before answering this question, we should consider which are the basic qualifications required for full membership in the European Union.
Basic qualifications for full membership in the EU.
They areas as follows:
Applicant must be a European state
It’s a democratic country in which human rights are respected and guaranteed
It has respect for and protection of minorities
It is a functioning market economy
It shares the common European values and its internal and external objectives.
It incorporates the “Acquis Communitaire” into the national law.
Different models of Association
Essentially, there are two different association models:
Europe Agreement,
Known as “Pre-accession Partnership” which makes specific provisions for eventual full membership, but don’t guarantee it.
Association Agreement
The EU may conclude with one or more states agreements establishing reciprocal rights and obligations. This framework is very loose, and may be agreed in defining strong and long-term relations.
Problems to solve before new enlargements
Currently, the EU faces difficult problems that must be solved before considering any further enlargement: Irish negative vote on the Lisbon Treaty; problems with some of the late incorporated members; the economic situation, etc. The EU future criteria to approve the main decisions in a larger Union are not a minor subject and therefore should be revised.
A strategic vision of the future
The Origins of the EU are rooted in considering the awful disaster that the Second World War meant for Europe. Jean Monnet and Robert Schumann, considered the ideological founders of the EU, had a dream: to have a peaceful union of European countries, sharing the same values, promoting social and economic progress and achieving a better quality of life for its people. They had a strategic view of what was needed for the future. The founding of the ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) in April 1951 was the first step of this dream.
What to do now in a world that is changing in its deepest roots?
Europe needs again to have a new dream, a new utopia; this dream, this utopia, requires defining a new strategy for the future.
The current demographic and economic trends show that, let’s say, in twenty or thirty years, some new big powers will be present in the world: China, India, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, etc. Some countries will set up regional organisations to have bigger markets and much more power that being alone.
A proposal for the future:
Around 1950, the EU has been founded on the principles of liberty, democracy, and respect for human rights. The main idea was to develop a united Europe aimed to economic and social progress and peace.
This initial dream is now a reality. The EU, in spite of its current problems, is a success without precedent. The EU founders had seen ahead, and now as the founders had done, we need to see ahead again; we need to imagine how we would like Europe to be around 2.050, and what we should do to achieve it.
Of course the context from 1950’s up to now has change dramatically, and it will continue to change in the future.
With this long-term strategic vision in mind I propose:
Once the EU has reasonably dealt with the current problems, to initiate a new enlargement process of the EU towards the East, aimed to, in a long-term, incorporate these countries as full EU members, and an enlargement to the southern Mediterranean countries with a status of a “Close Association Agreement”
This process will require recognizing the reciprocal interest of each country, flexibility, and a long period of time for adaptation involving multiple steps.
Therefore, different situations appear:
Situation 1: New members in a period of about 10 years.
Eligible members in this status would be mainly Turkey and the Balkan countries: Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, etc.
The negotiations would take place country by country; when the country fulfils the basic conditions. A transition period starts before full admission.
Of the current applicants Turkey have already a long-standing Association Agreement, and some of the remainders have Europe Agreements.
Some comments with regard to Turkey.
The admission of Turkey into the EU has generated a lively debate. Effectively there are pros and cons, but long-term the strategic advantages for Turkey and for the EU are large.
Of course, there are important issues involved: Turkey would be the biggest country in term of population and cultures are quite different. Turkey will need a huge amount of financial resources to improve its infrastructures, etc. but there is no shortage of strategic arguments in favour of its accession. Turkey is a large secular Muslim democracy. Europe wants Turkey to become more modern, democratic and stable because Turkey has strategic importance as "an anchor of stability and a benchmark of democracy” for the wider Muslim world. The best way of achieving those changes is the process of becoming an EU member. We need Turkey in the EU as much as Turkey needs the EU.
Situation 2: Future members to be considered after a long period of time
(From 15 to 25 years):
These countries are the European countries that belonged once to the old Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldavia, Georgia, Armenia, etc. Some of them have already applied for membership to the EU.
In all cases collaboration should start with an Association Agreement. After a long period of time both parts would consider the interest of a Europe Agreement, or
“Pre-accession Partnership”, that makes specific provisions for eventual full membership, but do not guarantee it.
Why Russia matters?
Russia is recovering the role of a great power that not long ago they had. If you combine its current economic, military and diplomatic strengths Russia ranks among the important countries of the world. Much of its power has been due to record high prices for oil and gas.
Europe depends more on Russia for oil and gas than for the Middle East. Russia with its important natural resources, its 16.000 nuclear warheads, its veto at the United Nations Security Council and its influence in the world is an important world player.
Russia is trying to restore its great power status in its traditional spheres of influence in central Europe especially in Ukraine, Belarusian, Georgia, Moldavia, etc. and in Asia and other parts of the world. We have seen recently what had happened in Georgia.
If we refer to Europe, one clear example is its support of Serbia with regard to the independence of Kosovo. Most of these European countries are looking to join the EU, but the EU has fond an unexpected and unwanted competitor: Russia, that doesn’t want to lose this geopolitical area of influence. What to do?
Is it true that the EU and Russia geopolitically live in different eras, but a large cooperation in a large number of fields between both sides will have huge benefices for both parts.
Situation 3: Associated Mediterranean members with strong long-term agreements.
Members qualified would be all ten southern Mediterranean countries from Morocco, through Lebanon and Syria. These countries never will become EU full members because they don’t belong to Europe.
The cooperation that I propose is an Association Agreement for each separate country or group of countries. The EU may conclude agreements establishing reciprocal rights and obligations. This framework is very loose, and may be agreed in defining progressively stronger relations. The reach of the agreements should be very flexible and in a multi-step process.
The cooperation can be very beneficial for all the countries. Areas to be developed are: trade, investments, financial, assistance in scientific, technical, and industrial fields.
More intensive cultural and political contacts would help progress in human rights and democracy, and will stabilise the region and relieve migration pressure on the Union’s southern frontiers.
In 1995 the EU and these southern Mediterranean countries signed the “Barcelona Declaration” partly in that sense. Currently, the French President Sarkozy, as current president of the EU, has retaken the subject very seriously and wants to enhance the process.
Benefits of the proposal
In the long term the aim is to establish the largest political, economic, and free trade area of the world: an enlarged EU from the Atlantic until the Pacific and with a Cooperation Agreement with all the southern Mediterranean countries.
This association process once fully developed will guarantee peace and collaboration among countries that will have a population of one billion people, and that will have complementary economies of developed and underdeveloped countries. All these countries together will be able to develop a huge market for agriculture, industry, services, and energy, which will help in competing with the newly emerging countries. Eventually, “the North” will help to develop “the South”, which at the same time will help to prevent illegal migrations.
Another important asset should be, that this close cooperation should not be restricted to the economic arena, but to political, social and multicultural areas.
An EU with its diverse associated members transcending power politics will design a social and multicultural model that could lead the world into a new international order based on democracy, international law and global institutions. This would be the best contribution to a world in fostering economic growth and social progress, stability, cooperation and peace. Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
27/08/2008
Francesc Raventós Economista
Recent events like the case of Georgia have shown what kind of tensions may suffer Europe in the near future. In the past, tensions and wars among the European great powers have definitely been solved building up the European Union. Russia is an autocracy in an early stage of democracy. Thanks to its natural resources is already a growing economic great power, which wishes to expand its influence and role in Europe and in the world. Should European Union in a long long term consider admitting Russia as a new member?
THE EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGMENT
The EU is today composed by 27 countries, with a global population of 500.000.000 persons, and a GDP according to IFM of 16.800 billion $, slightly above the USA GDP, and far above the third economic world power: Japan.
The construction of the EU has been an on-going process. Where and when will this process have an end?
Before answering this question, we should consider which are the basic qualifications required for full membership in the European Union.
Basic qualifications for full membership in the EU.
They areas as follows:
Applicant must be a European state
It’s a democratic country in which human rights are respected and guaranteed
It has respect for and protection of minorities
It is a functioning market economy
It shares the common European values and its internal and external objectives.
It incorporates the “Acquis Communitaire” into the national law.
Different models of Association
Essentially, there are two different association models:
Europe Agreement,
Known as “Pre-accession Partnership” which makes specific provisions for eventual full membership, but don’t guarantee it.
Association Agreement
The EU may conclude with one or more states agreements establishing reciprocal rights and obligations. This framework is very loose, and may be agreed in defining strong and long-term relations.
Problems to solve before new enlargements
Currently, the EU faces difficult problems that must be solved before considering any further enlargement: Irish negative vote on the Lisbon Treaty; problems with some of the late incorporated members; the economic situation, etc. The EU future criteria to approve the main decisions in a larger Union are not a minor subject and therefore should be revised.
A strategic vision of the future
The Origins of the EU are rooted in considering the awful disaster that the Second World War meant for Europe. Jean Monnet and Robert Schumann, considered the ideological founders of the EU, had a dream: to have a peaceful union of European countries, sharing the same values, promoting social and economic progress and achieving a better quality of life for its people. They had a strategic view of what was needed for the future. The founding of the ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) in April 1951 was the first step of this dream.
What to do now in a world that is changing in its deepest roots?
Europe needs again to have a new dream, a new utopia; this dream, this utopia, requires defining a new strategy for the future.
The current demographic and economic trends show that, let’s say, in twenty or thirty years, some new big powers will be present in the world: China, India, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, etc. Some countries will set up regional organisations to have bigger markets and much more power that being alone.
A proposal for the future:
Around 1950, the EU has been founded on the principles of liberty, democracy, and respect for human rights. The main idea was to develop a united Europe aimed to economic and social progress and peace.
This initial dream is now a reality. The EU, in spite of its current problems, is a success without precedent. The EU founders had seen ahead, and now as the founders had done, we need to see ahead again; we need to imagine how we would like Europe to be around 2.050, and what we should do to achieve it.
Of course the context from 1950’s up to now has change dramatically, and it will continue to change in the future.
With this long-term strategic vision in mind I propose:
Once the EU has reasonably dealt with the current problems, to initiate a new enlargement process of the EU towards the East, aimed to, in a long-term, incorporate these countries as full EU members, and an enlargement to the southern Mediterranean countries with a status of a “Close Association Agreement”
This process will require recognizing the reciprocal interest of each country, flexibility, and a long period of time for adaptation involving multiple steps.
Therefore, different situations appear:
Situation 1: New members in a period of about 10 years.
Eligible members in this status would be mainly Turkey and the Balkan countries: Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, etc.
The negotiations would take place country by country; when the country fulfils the basic conditions. A transition period starts before full admission.
Of the current applicants Turkey have already a long-standing Association Agreement, and some of the remainders have Europe Agreements.
Some comments with regard to Turkey.
The admission of Turkey into the EU has generated a lively debate. Effectively there are pros and cons, but long-term the strategic advantages for Turkey and for the EU are large.
Of course, there are important issues involved: Turkey would be the biggest country in term of population and cultures are quite different. Turkey will need a huge amount of financial resources to improve its infrastructures, etc. but there is no shortage of strategic arguments in favour of its accession. Turkey is a large secular Muslim democracy. Europe wants Turkey to become more modern, democratic and stable because Turkey has strategic importance as "an anchor of stability and a benchmark of democracy” for the wider Muslim world. The best way of achieving those changes is the process of becoming an EU member. We need Turkey in the EU as much as Turkey needs the EU.
Situation 2: Future members to be considered after a long period of time
(From 15 to 25 years):
These countries are the European countries that belonged once to the old Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldavia, Georgia, Armenia, etc. Some of them have already applied for membership to the EU.
In all cases collaboration should start with an Association Agreement. After a long period of time both parts would consider the interest of a Europe Agreement, or
“Pre-accession Partnership”, that makes specific provisions for eventual full membership, but do not guarantee it.
Why Russia matters?
Russia is recovering the role of a great power that not long ago they had. If you combine its current economic, military and diplomatic strengths Russia ranks among the important countries of the world. Much of its power has been due to record high prices for oil and gas.
Europe depends more on Russia for oil and gas than for the Middle East. Russia with its important natural resources, its 16.000 nuclear warheads, its veto at the United Nations Security Council and its influence in the world is an important world player.
Russia is trying to restore its great power status in its traditional spheres of influence in central Europe especially in Ukraine, Belarusian, Georgia, Moldavia, etc. and in Asia and other parts of the world. We have seen recently what had happened in Georgia.
If we refer to Europe, one clear example is its support of Serbia with regard to the independence of Kosovo. Most of these European countries are looking to join the EU, but the EU has fond an unexpected and unwanted competitor: Russia, that doesn’t want to lose this geopolitical area of influence. What to do?
Is it true that the EU and Russia geopolitically live in different eras, but a large cooperation in a large number of fields between both sides will have huge benefices for both parts.
Situation 3: Associated Mediterranean members with strong long-term agreements.
Members qualified would be all ten southern Mediterranean countries from Morocco, through Lebanon and Syria. These countries never will become EU full members because they don’t belong to Europe.
The cooperation that I propose is an Association Agreement for each separate country or group of countries. The EU may conclude agreements establishing reciprocal rights and obligations. This framework is very loose, and may be agreed in defining progressively stronger relations. The reach of the agreements should be very flexible and in a multi-step process.
The cooperation can be very beneficial for all the countries. Areas to be developed are: trade, investments, financial, assistance in scientific, technical, and industrial fields.
More intensive cultural and political contacts would help progress in human rights and democracy, and will stabilise the region and relieve migration pressure on the Union’s southern frontiers.
In 1995 the EU and these southern Mediterranean countries signed the “Barcelona Declaration” partly in that sense. Currently, the French President Sarkozy, as current president of the EU, has retaken the subject very seriously and wants to enhance the process.
Benefits of the proposal
In the long term the aim is to establish the largest political, economic, and free trade area of the world: an enlarged EU from the Atlantic until the Pacific and with a Cooperation Agreement with all the southern Mediterranean countries.
This association process once fully developed will guarantee peace and collaboration among countries that will have a population of one billion people, and that will have complementary economies of developed and underdeveloped countries. All these countries together will be able to develop a huge market for agriculture, industry, services, and energy, which will help in competing with the newly emerging countries. Eventually, “the North” will help to develop “the South”, which at the same time will help to prevent illegal migrations.
Another important asset should be, that this close cooperation should not be restricted to the economic arena, but to political, social and multicultural areas.
An EU with its diverse associated members transcending power politics will design a social and multicultural model that could lead the world into a new international order based on democracy, international law and global institutions. This would be the best contribution to a world in fostering economic growth and social progress, stability, cooperation and peace. Voleu llegir més? Premeu aqui!
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